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Quarterly Letter

First Quarter 2018


Sailing with the Tides

Embarking on a financial plan is like sailing around the world. The voyage won’t always go to plan, and there’ll be rough seas. But the odds of reaching your destination increase greatly if you are prepared, flexible, patient, and well‐advised.

A mistake many inexperienced sailors make is not having a plan. They embark without a clear sense of their destination and once they do decide, they often find themselves lost at sea in the wrong boat with inadequate provisions.

Likewise, in planning an investment journey, you need to decide on your goal. Once you are set on a realistic destination, you need to ensure you have the right portfolio to get you there. Have you planned for multiple contingencies? What degree of “bad weather” can your plan withstand along the way?

As with the weather at sea, markets can be unpredictable. A sudden squall (or Presidential tweet) can whip up waves of volatility, tides can shift, and strong currents can threaten to blow you off course. After a long stretch of relative calm in the equity markets, volatility returned in the last few months with the Dow rising and falling by hundreds of points each day as investors became unnerved by the prospect of an escalating trade war with China and the President’s attacks on Amazon.

During turbulent times, our goal at Davidson Capital is to serve as a trusted navigator to chart your course and keep you on target. Given the recent market “squalls,” I reached out a few weeks ago to a client who had been with us a relatively short time to see if she had any concerns. Her response perfectly summed up our advice: “I have finally adopted your keep calm and carry on philosophy and will assume that is our strongest course of action unless you tell me otherwise.

It is important to remember that uncertainty is inherent to the investment journey, just as it is with any sea voyage. That is why preparation and planning are so critical. While you can’t control every outcome, you can be prepared for the range of possibilities and understand that you have clear choices if things don’t go according to plan.

Once the storm passes, you can pick up speed again. Just as a sturdy vessel will help you withstand most conditions at sea, a well‐diversified portfolio can act as a bulwark against the sometimes tempestuous conditions in markets. Of course, not everyone’s journey is the same. Neither is everyone’s destination. We take different routes to different places, and we meet a range of challenges and opportunities along the way. But for all of us, it’s critical that we are prepared for our journeys in the right vessel, keep our destinations in mind and stick with the long-term plan.

So, keep calm and carry on.

Sincerely,

DAVIDSON CAPITAL
Stanley P. Dyl
Managing Director
April 10, 2018
 
 

Market Summary

Index Returns

market summary q1 2018.PNG

World Stock Market Returns

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months

world stock market performance q1 2018.PNG

Impact of Diversification

First Quarter 2018 Index Returns

impact of diversification q1 2018.PNG

 

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